Bay Area Votes to Decide the Fate of Transit Sales Tax Measure This Fall

Among the many important decisions facing Bay Area voters this election is a new sales tax that aims to help pull regional transit agencies out of financial hardship.

The Regional Transit Measure (RTM) proposes a half-cent sales tax in Alameda, Contra Costa, San Mateo and Santa Clara counties, and a 1-cent sales tax in San Francisco, over the next 14 years. A simple majority is required for the measure to pass come November 3.

The tax would generate an estimated $1 billion annually to be used to support operations at various transit agencies, including AC Transit, BART, Caltrain, Muni and, in the Tri-Valley, LAVTA. It would also fund repaving of transit routes, wayfinding and accessibility programs.

The origins of the measure stem from the budget crisis Bay Area transit agencies are experiencing due to drops in revenue and ridership as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic.

According to Connect Bay Area, a coalition leading the campaign in support of the initiative, the Bay Area will face a transit emergency if RTM does not pass.

The transit agencies will be forced to make service cuts. BART, for example, will have to close 15 stations – including possibly the West Dublin/Pleasanton station – shut down two lines and cut overall train service by 70%.

While BART and other transit agencies have seen some positive uptick in ridership this year – particularly during the major sporting events held in the Bay Area this year including Super Bowl LX and the FIFA World Cup – it is not enough to stave off cuts without the help of the proposed sales tax, proponents of RTM say.

Some cost saving measures have been implemented by transit agencies, such as hiring freezes, increased fares and fines, cutting down energy use, deferring maintenance and capital projects, among other efforts. However, Connect Bay Area organizers maintain that cost saving measures alone are not going to address the coming fiscal cliff.

Supporters of the measure have described a domino effect of issues that could arise as a result of the transit measure’s failure.

“Thousands of people would be forced every day onto our already congested roads, freeways, and bridges, worsening air pollution, making traffic start earlier and last longer, and resulting in most of us spending more time driving and less time home with our families,” according to a ballot argument signed by San Francisco Mayor Daniel Lurie, State Senator Scott Wiener (D-San Francisco), San Francisco City Attorney David Chiu, the San Francisco Democratic Party, the League of Women Voters of the Bay Area, Zuckerberg San Francisco General Hospital nurse Brandy Blau and transit advocate Lian Chang.

“The Regional Transit Measure protects public transit while requiring local transportation investments – with strong accountability and oversight that requires large transit agencies to show cost savings to continue receiving dedicated operating funding. And it doesn’t tax rent, utilities, prescription medicines, or most groceries,” the argument reads.

Another potential issue that is of particular concern to people who live and work in the Tri-Valley is the impact transit cuts could have on the Valley Link Rail project if the measure fails.

Valley Link is a forthcoming 42-mile, passenger rail service connecting the over 105,000 Bay Area workers traveling daily over the Altamont Pass from their homes in the Northern San Joaquin Valley. The project – set to be constructed in two phases – seeks to ease congestion at the Interstate 580 corridor and bring new riders to the broader Bay Area transit system, according to the project overview.

Improving connectivity to BART is one of the project's top goals, which means the stability and reliability of BART could impact the Valley Link Rail’s utility. If BART services are cut and standards of cleanliness and safety lessened, the incentive weakens for commuters from the Central Valley to take Valley Link.

Notably, the measure is receiving critical support from regional as well as local business organizations such as Innovation Tri-Valley, East Bay Leadership Council and Bay Area Council. A number of Tri-Valley elected officials have endorsed RTM, including Dublin Vice Mayor Jean Josey, Dublin Councilmember Kashef Qaadri and Livermore Councilmember Evan Branning. Indivisible Tri-Valley is among the advocacy groups backing the measure.

The taxpayers associations of Contra Costa and San Francisco are among the organizations in opposition of the measure as well as the Committee for Affordable Bay Area Transit – the official campaign coalition opposing Measure RTM – which runs the Fixes Before Funding initiative.

Opponents argue that Bay Area transit agencies already receive around $6 billion a year in taxes, tolls and government grants, and they should use those existing funds before asking taxpayers for more money.

They suggest that by diverting money from existing capital projects, renegotiating labor contracts, reducing overtime pay or automating service, agencies could avoid service cuts.

“Voting no does not shut down transit. It forces the state and the agencies to do what they should have done already: pay for service out of the money they are pouring into capital megaprojects and figure out how to operate within current conditions and current funding,” according to Fixes Before Funding.

While the measure’s opponents recognize that ridership plummeted during the pandemic and has not since fully recovered, they maintain that RTM is not the answer but rather better financial management by these agencies along with restructuring and repurposing other funding.

The Fixes Before Funding campaign contends that transit agencies depended on federal emergency aid to fill the financial gaps caused by the collapse of ridership and fare revenue and failed to restructure their operating models during that time. Now that the federal aid has ended, the agencies are looking for this sales tax to replace it, the opponents say.

“Voting NO demands accountability before locking in $17 billion in new taxes. Sales taxes are regressive and hurt working families the most. Bay Area transit agencies already collect over $6.2 billion every year in public subsidies, yet Measure RTM provides non-binding oversight and locks in current inefficient operating models for 14 years,” Fixes Before Funding organizers said on their website.

Two costly capital projects the opposition suggests pausing in order to save money include the BART Silicon Valley Phase II project, which would extend BART six miles through downtown San Jose to Santa Clara at a cost of $12.75 billion, and The Portal – a proposed downtown San Francisco rail extension connecting Caltrain to the Salesforce Transit Center that has a federal cost estimate of $8.25 billion for just 1.3 miles. The opposition also suggests diverting money away from the California High Speed Rail project.

“The Yes side says that money budgeted for construction cannot simply be spent on operations. But the Legislature can change that restriction and it has already done so. In 2023, Senate Bill 125 distributed $4 billion through the Transit and Intercity Rail Capital Program with explicit flexibility to use the money for either transit operations or capital improvements,” Fixes Before Funding officials wrote.

“This would not have to become a permanent funding model. Capital-to-operations flexibility could instead provide a two-year bridge while the region works on a longer-term solution.”

Among its list of solutions, Fixes Before Funding suggests policymakers take more time to develop a better long-term plan with greater accountability.

“After two years of bridging deficits and pursuing operating reforms, policymakers would have much better information about what Bay Area transit needs and what taxpayers can afford,” according to Fixes Before Funding.

While the official Election Day is set for November 3, Vote-By-Mail is currently underway. Mailed ballots must be postmarked on or before Election Day and received not later than seven days after Election Day.

To learn more about the Yes on RTM campaign visit https://www.regionaltransitmeasure.com/

To learn more about the No on RTM campaign visit https://nonewtransittax.com

Photo by Aleksandr Popov on Unsplash